Signals

Germany – ITB Berlin (3–5 March 2026) is the world’s leading travel trade show and at this year’s event discussions took a sombre turn as former German politician Joseph Martin ‘Joschka’ Fischer, chairman of the advisory board at Joschka Fischer Consulting, delivered a thought-provoking keynote entitled Geopolitical Shifts and the Emergence of a New World Order: Strategic Implications for Tourism. He warned that the rules-based order is fading away and being replaced by a power-based system dominated by the US, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia – with India potentially next.

Fischer argued that the emerging world order is not in favour of tourism, highlighting the Gulf – which he referred to as ‘the gas station of the world economy’ – as a region in severe crisis with an almost unpredictable future. As a central aviation hub for global stopovers, instability in the Middle East has far-reaching implications. Referencing recent events, he noted how the once paradisiacal beach destination, Dubai, is now perceived through the lens of conflict.

This prompts many questions: will travellers retreat into domestic markets as a form of consumer protectionism, redrawing tourism maps around perceived safe zones? Or could prolonged instability accelerate the rise of dark tourism, as conflict itself becomes a site of curiosity and commerce?

For operators, the implication is clear. The reality of war is no longer abstract. Leaders were urged to re-assess investment timelines and destination positioning. 

‘Customers will not pay to risk their lives,’ said Fischer, grounding the debate in a fundamental truth: security underpins demand. In this context, crisis response, risk management and transparent communication will become competitive differentiators.

While better days may come, the timeline is undefined. Fischer’s message to leaders was pointed: prepare for heightened insecurity and build strategies for a highly volatile world. For tourism, peace needs to be present, but that is no longer guaranteed.